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The wurst of times? Germany looks to stronger growth

14 November 2019

Zew expectations index (orange, LHS) rebounds strongly while Ifo (blue, RHS) is flat in November

The Ifo Pan Germany Business Climate Index has stabilized while the Zew Germany Expectations of Economic Growth Index ralled sharply in November, suggesting to many market watchers that the worst is over. German economy also grew 0.1% QoQ in the July-September period, narrowly avoiding a recession. The US administration is expected to delay a decision to slap tariffs on European car and car part imports this week. US President Donald Trump previously announced a November deadline to announce such a trade policy change. Then the European Union (EU) threatened tariffs on USD 39 billion worth of US goods if Trump indeed raised trade barriers. More car shipments from Europe would support production and petchem imports to the region. Stronger-than-expected growth poses an upside risk to our ME Gulf/Westbound freight forecasts.

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