IMF cuts growth forecasts as orderbook increases
Slower-than-expected economic growth due to tariff increases along with accelerated tonnage gains suggests that the market for chemical tanker space will ease this year and next. International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts this month for global GDP growth were revised downwards from January estimates. The world economy is expected to expand at 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, and increase 3.0% in 2026. Export volumes are now expected to rise a meagre 0.8% this year and 2.3% in the next. But intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook. A worsening trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects, IMF economists warned. Oil prices are likely to fall, according to the US Energy Information Agency, pointing to downward pressure on bunker prices, voyage costs and freight levels. According to the orderbook, chemical tanker tonnage is likely to increase of 3% and 6% this year and next. Bulk liquid chemical shipments tend to track overall export volumes, so such tonnage gains may outpace cargo increases, suggesting the market for chemical tanker space will ease. Eastport R&S forecasts chemical tanker freights fall in 2025, with 10kt ME Gulf/NE Asia declining 15% to USD 62/mt.